Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back Bologna to win

After a winter break, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best football tip across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold…

Both lớn hit the net in Barcelona

Espanyol vs Athletic Club

Saturday, 12:00 GMT

Espanyol are in desperate need of points heading into this game, as despite beating Villarreal 2-1 away from home last weekend, they still sit bottom of the La Liga table and four points from safety.

Based on xG, they are unfortunate to sit in the relegation zone, ranking as the 17th best team, but their main issue this season hasn't been creating chances, it has been failing to take them.

Espanyol have scored only 16 goals this season from chances equating lớn 24.8 xGF, so need lớn get their finishing boots on if they are to survive, and there were signs of that happening at Villarreal last weekend. You can prefer lớn the soccer tips daily win page!

Athletic Club were exceptionally unfortunate not to beat Celta Vigo last time out, as they created a host of chances in an excellent display, but had lớn settle for a draw (xG: BIL 4.25 - 0.83 CEL).

Away from home the Basque side do struggle, and have won just once on the road this season, with their defensive process a cause for concern when they are away from San Mames (1.61 xGA per away game).

They are a capable attacking team (1.38 xGF per game), so will trouble Espanyol here, and the Infogol model calculates a 51% (1.96) chance of both teams scoring here, making the hai.16 (46%) on offer a decent value play.

No back-to-back for SPAL

SPAL vs Bologna

Saturday, 14:00 GMT

SPAL picked up a hugely surprising win on Monday, and a hugely fortunate one, as they beat Atalanta despite allowing a host of chances (xG: ATA hai.14 - 1.24 SPA).

That win propelled them off the foot of the table and lớn within a point of safety, and that is exactly where they deserve to be according to xG.

Their process is very poor, especially defensively (1.85 xGA per game), and they are winless in five at home including a defeat to second-bottom Brescia, so people shouldn't overreact to their win on Monday.

Bologna were held at home by a good Verona team last weekend, and prior to that had won the xG battle against both Torino (xG: TOR 0.56 - 2.08 BOL) and Fiorentina (xG: BOL 1.14 - 0.34 FIO) without picking up a win.

They have the process of a top half team this season (1.69 xGF, 1.42 xGA per game), so are unfortunate to sit 12th, but if they keep performing at the same level, results will come for Siniša Mihajlović's side.

Infogol thinks they will get back lớn winning ways here, calculating a 50% (2.00) chance of an away win, meaning the 2.40 (42%) available on the Exchange represents good value.