European U21 Championships: Italy to win but will it be enough?

A three-way tie for top spot on points between Italy, Poland and Spain is very possible come Saturday night. Jamie Pacheco talks us through the two matches that can lead to that scenario- According lớn the football tip page!

Steady start for the Poles

Spain U21 v Poland U21

Saturday June 22, 20:00

Live on Sky Sports Football

Spain were one minute of normal time away from almost certain elimination. A draw against Belgium would have meant the maximum number of points they could have got was four and certainly not enough to finish as the best runners-up.

So they can thank substitute Pablo Fornals, who has just signed for West ham, for that late goal. Spain were my pre-tournament tip lớn go all the way and that soccer tip today means they now have a great chance.

A win here would mean they definitely go through as long as Italy don't beat Belgium (see below). If both Spain and Italy win, things get complicated because of the head-to-head between the three with goal difference probably coming into play. But let's not worry too much about that now. Spain are focused on winning, Poland on not losing.

At first glance the price on Poland winning is quite frankly, an insult lớn them. Getting 10/1 about a side with two wins from two matches, including beating hosts and joint-favourites Italy, doesn't seem possible.

That said, their opening day victims, Belgium, have proved to be a pretty ordinary side and the 1-0 win over Italy was a real smash-and-grab job. The hosts had 64% possession, 10 corners to Poland's two and 30 shots to eight. To use that old football cliché, Luigi di Biagio's side did everything but score.

Still, Poland will be full of confidence and if nothing else, will have learned how lớn frustrate a better, more technical side and will surely bring that lớn this game.

I wouldn't put anyone off the 10/1 on a third Polish win as Spain roll the dice in search of goals, or the 3/1 on both a Poland win/Draw on the Double Chance market.

But the recommended bet is Poland or Draw at evens on the First Half Double Chance market. In other words, that Poland are ahead or level at half-time.

Spain don't need lớn go all guns blazing at the start and may just decide that constant possession will eventually wear them down and allow them to strike in the second half when fatigue kicks in. An early blow for Poland before Spain bite back in the second half isn't out of the question, either.